My wife and I have just returned from a three week vacation in Europe that included a river cruise through central and western Europe. On this cruise we were provided guides who were well informed and gave us an overview of their nation's history. Implicit in their narratives was a common theme of being dominated by foreign influences they had no say over. In Austria and Germany, we heard about Nazism, and in their rhetorical questioning how a person like Adolph Hitler rose to power was an implicit question about who we elected as our president - a warning that such a phenomena as a Hitler is possible anywhere. Their implicit question was not lost on me and made me ponder our current political environment in the United States.
We can give the phenomenon we're coping with a label - Trumpism, named after our current president whose rise to power and the presidency, to put it in his own words during his May 2017 interview with NBC's Lester Holt, "shouldn't have happened." Nevertheless, it did happen and the reason it happened extends beyond the machinations of the Trump Campaign and Russia's interference. Undoubtedly these are serious cause for concern and scrutiny, but in doing so we tend to overlook that some 63,000,000 voters voted for Mr. Trump, giving him enough votes to win the electoral vote. So what appealed to these voters? What gave shape to Trumpism?
TRUMPISM
Let me be clear from the onset Trumpism isn't a true "ism." It has no identifiable ideology of its own In fact, it appears on the political and social stage as an anti-ideology that is largely dependent on vacuous rhetoric and feeding a neurotic attraction fueled by turmoil. Some have described Trumpism as a movement. As such, Trumpism has become a magnet for the discontented who can insert their own ideological beliefs as those being held by President Trump. As a result we see a mix of white nationalists, neo-Nazis, KKK, along with right-wing evangelicals, and people who don't want change, social conservatives who are anti-progressive, anti-Obama, and anti-Clinton which lead many on the opposite end of the spectrum to reasonably conclude that Trumpism is fundamentally racist and sexist.
Ask most average Trump supporters why they support President Trump and one hears a vague litany of similar responses, " He's better than Obama. He's better than Clinton. He tells it like it is." Rarely, does one hear them go beyond such vague reasons to explain why Mr. Trump is better than Obama or Clinton or in what way he "tells it like it is." That's the mystery of his appeal; the ideological vacuum that sucks in the fears and frustrations people have but cannot be explained other than to place blame for their personal grievances on an identifiable personality or social condition; such as, Clinton, Obama, immigrants, homosexuality, abortion, and the generalized other.
Currently, President Trump has been able to capitalize on these vague fears and frustrations by offering vague solutions, but one has to wonder how long such storefront appeals will last if there is nothing of substance in the store. At some point, the market for being anti-Obama and anti-Clinton will lose its appeal as there is nothing new to keep his consumers interested. The remedy, thus far, appears to be creating chaos; to keep the presses rolling and the news media tuned in. As much as President Trump claims to despise the news media, he knows there would be no President Trump without it. Fake news, the news of his making, is the lifeblood that affirms his base's vague sense of reason.
At some point, Mr. Trump will have to own his presidency, something he really hasn't done. As for telling it like it is, he's a marketer reminiscent of the hawkers who sold snake oil in the nineteenth century to a wanna-believing public. He's transparently artificial and nonfactual who will tell a lie boldfaced that appeals to his base, "his people," who will believe it because it reflects the confused anger they feel, but there comes a point that lies are not sustainable and when people realize there is no cure in the snake oil being sold them.
To discount Trumpism as a political or sociological fluke, however, would be a mistake. Its emergence is telling. Ironically, the fact that we are having to cope with it says that things aren't great in the U.S.; that the racism and sexism exposed within the Trumpist framework is for a large segment of voters "the way it is."
Whether those who are in this segment (nominally identified as "my people" by President Trump) actually see themselves as racist or sexist is hard to tell, but there is an implicit toleration, if not acceptance, of racism and sexism that hitherto has been considered un-American or contrary to what most Americans value. Generalized Xenophobia, unspecified would be a diagnosis one could attach to Trumpism and Trumpists.
If Trumpism can be identified as such, can President Trump be identified as such?
If one is honest, it would be hard to say with any degree of certainty. Mr. Trump is not an ideologue and that is why it is hard to pin down what he exactly believes about any situation. He appears to believe what he says at any given moment, and at any given moment he can change what he believes. One would think that all of his contradictory remarks and the one-time popular accusation leveled by Republicans on Democrats of flip-flopping,would be a turn off to a base who desires certainty. What seems to make him appealing to his most ardent followers is his angry demeanor - the one constant emotional feature on display which his base seems mesmerized by and relates with.
As intriguing as Mr. Trump's persona is, Trumpism can take on a life of its own and can be viewed useful to those who find in its vacuous state a staging area to launch their agendas. I believe this is at least one of the reasons why most Republicans in congress are reluctant to take on this president. It's not that they're afraid of him (although some appear to be), but rather find his ability to distract useful.
It may also be that their silence is due to the Mueller investigation; that they see no reason to address the President's antics at this time, to let Mueller's findings give them cause for doing so. After all, the Republican party still have an ace in the hole; the Vice President, Mike Pence. They see no need to rattle President Trump's supporters during the midterm season because without them, they will surely lose the House and possibly the Senate.
While their silence is disconcerting to the press, I do not get a sense that their being silent is being particularly helpful to the President. There's a sense that they may be giving him enough rope to end his presidency because he is (in many ways) his biggest liability. Or... it may be that no one can really talk to this president or that no one is trying too hard to curb his self-destructive behaviors.
The question is what happens to Trumpism when President Trump leaves office. Will Trumpism remain?
In other words, is Trumpism a prelude for more of the same, an interlude that serves as a break or diversion from the trajectory our nation and world is on, or does it serve as a postlude, the finale to a mindset and culture of desperate racism and sexism that has run its course?
PRELUDE
Trumpism as a prelude does not bode well for our Constitution, for liberty, or for our nation. As much as I personally don't want to consider the possibility of it being such, one has to consider what many fear will become the new "normal." As a prelude, Trumpism could open the door to more defined and stringent forms of nationalism.
As it stands today, Trumpism appears to be testing the waters; seeing how much nationalism Americans will tolerate. So far, the results have been mixed and fall along the divide between Trump supporters and the majority of people who are not. Even with 63,000,000 votes, one can't assume that all of those votes represent his die-hard base; that a large number of voters voted for him because they didn't like the alternative. If polls are accurate (always a questionable thing where President Trump is concerned), then one can assume that some of the President's base are not completely on board with him.
Even if that is the case, instead of backing down President Trump tends to double down in order to wear his opposition down and affirm the rightness of his momentary position with his base. To some degree this has been effective, but as the legal issues seem to be mounting, he is beginning to show signs of wearing down himself, if not melting down.
If President Trump's presidency ends up being termed out, Trumpism will be legitimized, if not normalized. It could be considered an effective political tool by the major political parties. The differences between parties will narrow as they resort to tactics that will result in one or both of the major parties being controlled by a like minded oligarchy of political elites.
Should that happen, the Bill of Rights and the Constitution will become targets in an ever increasing game of power grabbing as the focus is on the notion that who holds the White House, holds the country, if not the world. The free press will be pressed to conform to the new order and cease to be free or find itself tied up in lawsuits, its journalists jailed for contempt. In such a scenario, the First Amendment will be the first to go.
Congress will be diminished to being nothing more than a rubber stamp for an imperial presidency under the control of an oligarchy or oligarchies of competing business and military interests. The courts will become the court of the Presidency. The Constitution will be viewed like a Magna Carta in which constitutionally ordained processes will become mere court formalities that have no real meaning. Elections will be held and presidential appointees will be readily approved by Congress consisting mostly of those who favor the president in office.
If Trumpism becomes ideologically a more stringent form of ultra-nationalism, the trajectory of things could see right wing extremists who find an affinity with the Trumpism of today employed as bureaucrats or imprisoned if considered too radical and unstable. The Second Amendment will be the second thing to go along with Due Process. The U.S. could find itself aligned with other dictatorships. NATO would likely collapse or result in a much more unified European coalition aligned with other free nations, such as, Canada, who will fill the void left by U.S. withdrawal from its former commitments.
Of course this is all highly speculative and there are other factors that will come into play if Trumpism is a trajectory that will take hold in the United States. Such a scenario seems an impossibility where the U.S. is concerned, but is it? After all, 60,000,000 people elected Mr. Trump to be our President regardless of the illegitimacy of who or what influenced those voters.
President Trump has been testing the waters ever since he took office. He has made statements favoring a presidency for life. He has taken immigrant children away from their parents. He openly fawns over dictators, wanting a military parade just like they have.
One thing should be clear in everyone's mind by now: President Trump does not joke. He desires.
He says what's on his mind to see if people will bite. What seems likely is that if he is given an inch the mile will soon be his. If Trumpism is legitimized, this speculative outlook could become realized in short order.
INTERLUDE
If President Trump is voted out of office after one term, the effectiveness of Trumpism will be questioned and there may be a backlash against the tactics that are currently being employed. In terms of progress it will be seen as one step backwards in the two steps forward - one step - backwards model of progress.
As an interlude, Trumpism exposes much work to be done in stabilizing the political and social environment of this nation. Racism, sexism and xenophobia are realities that must be dealt with, along with a crumbling infrastructure and foreign intrusion into our electoral system. As an interlude, Trumpism will pass on to something else and, in the short term, will serve as a wake up call to our political leaders. The extreme pendulum swing of our current polarized political system must be addressed. Loyal opposition must become the goal of politics, and the politics of personal destruction must be curtailed and ended.
It will also prove likely that Trumpism has hurt the office of the President. To some extent Congress has played a role in allowing this damage to occur by becoming obstructionist. No doubt there will be a move to curb presidential powers and restore the balance of power between the three branches of government. As an interlude, Trumpism may result in meaningful election reform.
If the Mueller investigation proves corruption has taken place that helped Mr. Trump to the presidency and President Trump is able to escape personal liability, he will be chastised by a one term presidency and the Republican Party can look forward to a purge in leadership.
As an interlude, Trumpism has sown a great deal of distrust amongst reliable allies and trading partners. The U.S. will need to demonstrate that its political processes are stable. America will have to rebuild its old alliances and trading partners. The news media must also stick to verifiable reporting and avoid the temptation of ratings wars. Sensationalism in the form of "reality" programming and entertainment does not belong on our national news networks. The First Amendment is too vital to toy with. If Trumpism has proven anything, it has proven how vulnerable our constitutional rights are.
POSTLUDE
Trumpism could be a flare-out of a dying era; the era of a white, male dominated, flag worshipping, fearmongering culture that thrives on conspiracy theories and distrust of all things new. Let me be clear that any flare-out is a dangerous event like the collapse of a star. What marks a flare-out is erratic behavior that effects the gravitational stability of an entity.
For example, as President Trump is the gravitational center of executive power in the U.S. and as he consistently acts in an erratic fashion, he will likely cause the core of his base to shrink while at the same time causing this core to become increasingly cohesive and irrational in defending the indefensible. On the other hand, there will be those who voted for him but end up feeling betrayed by his erratic conduct. As a result, they are likely to spin off into the nether-world of the disillusioned were they will likely remain silent.
The difficulty is that voters who vote for someone who turns out to be a bad choice find it difficult to admit their choice was wrong and will for some time stick by their choice in the hope that he will turn things around. Trump supporters strike me as being particularly prone to stick by their decisions and engage in creative rationalizing when things aren't going the way they thought; initially blaming his opposition or engaging in various conspiracy theories. If and when they decide it's not others but the President, they will feel betrayed and affirm their beliefs that politics corrupts absolutely and disengage from the democratic process.
Should President Trump's presidency end as a result of impeachment or resignation, Trumpism as associated with Mr. Trump will end, but not necessarily fade quickly away. Populism has emerged in its ascendancy; having political appeal to both Democrats and Republicans. As I have noted in other posts, populism is fraught with its own problems and is often short-sighted in its goals and aspirations. What is likely is that Trumpism will become a political liability to any politician who has attached her or his star to Mr. Trump.
The fallout will likely send ripples in any number of directions should the flare-out effect become extremely bright and hot. A Trump impeachment or resignation will have a damaging effect on any organizations that have supported him, especially, those that ardently supported him like the evangelical Christian Right and the NRA. Civil disruption and disobedience may well emerge in its wake, especially if politicians who supported Trump give a figurative or an actual call to arms in response to such endings, an unthinkable but real possibility.
While political and social flare-outs burn bright and hot, they cool quickly after a firestorm and a certain amount irrational ash settles. What is to be hoped for is that after the ash settles there is something left of the structure and fabric of what was before Trumpism became a thing; for people to see that they are still standing and the apocalypse that they had feared or hoped for has not happened; that they begin to question what led to this momentary phenomenon and the madness that ensued and seek meaningful answers to heal the wounds that occurred.
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POSTSCRIPT
As I am writing this post, there are some dramatic changes that have taken place. Both President Trump's one time campaign manager, Paul Manafort and his one time personal lawyer, Michael Cohen have been convicted of crimes related to President Trump's campaign. This does not bode well for President Trump as the Mueller investigation is likely to become more aggressive in determining if there are dots to be connected between the findings of those convictions and Russia's interference with the election. Speculation is that Mueller already has the connections and is only waiting to secure unrefutable proof of those connections and any personal link that can be made to the President himself.
Apart from the Russia investigation, there is a growing mountain of evidence that the President was engaged and continues to engage in obstruction of justice. While this does not look good for President Trump, I am reluctant to say that his presidency is doomed or that Trumpism is soon to be a thing of the past. How this all plays out will determine if Trumpism is a prelude, interlude, or postlude.
What is certain, as I am writing this post, is that the United States is at a critical juncture. So I will end this post by offering some thoughts based on these recent events:
SOME PARTING THOUGHTS
If there is good news to be derived from recent events, it is that the legal system appears to be functioning as it should. What is uncertain is the ramifications it has on the presidency and what impact it will have on the political process moving forward. Much of the political process involved hinges on Mueller's investigation, and there are growing concerns about what President Trump will do regarding it. The question is what will happen if the President decides to fire Mr. Mueller, the Attorney General, and the Assistant Attorney General, an increasing likelihood as the personal pressure rises on the President. Will the Republican led congress step up to the plate should this happen before the mid-term elections? Will they do so if such an event occurs after the elections and they retain control of both houses of Congress?
More pertinent to Republican led congress's political worries is whether they can keep President Trump from taking such action or from issuing a pardon to Paul Manafort before the election. Regardless of the political protections Republicans in congress can offer the president (even should he end the Russia investigation), the legal jeopardy the President personally finds himself in is that while he might not be indicted for criminal activity as President, his family members and his businesses can. To what extent is he willing to see that happen? This is Mr. Mueller's, the AG's, and Ass't. AG's ace in the hole. Nevertheless, the likelihood that President Trump will take matters into his own hands at some point is all but certain.
Ending the investigation will not end President Trump's legal problems. As yet, there is no political solution to the legal issues, and if the Republicans in Congress are committed to the Constitution and the rule of law none will be offered. The question is whether President Trump has the personal fortitude to wait that long or whether he will gamble on avoiding impeachment by keeping the House and the Senate in Republican hands after ending the Russian investigation. My guess is that the Republicans in Congress are hoping he has the fortitude to do so.
Meanwhile, the Democrats are also playing it safe, which leads one to wonder if they have learned anything from the 2016 election. Silence was not helpful then and it is questionable whether it is helpful now. I respect that they do not want to jump to any conclusions regarding whether to run an impeachment campaign without having Mueller's investigatory findings. That is wise and they should not jump to any conclusions. While I agree with that approach, they should be talking up a storm about protecting Mr. Mueller and the investigation, which is constantly under attack by the President and his supporters. I'm not hearing much chatter by Democrats in the news media about that. Perhaps part of the reason is because the Democrats believe they don't have to explain or underscore the obvious; that they fear doing so will somehow arouse Mr. Trump's base or worse turn off independent supporters.
Regardless of the Democratic approach to Trumpism, Trumpism is largely a problem created by the Republican Party and a problem which the Republican Party should resolve. Thus far, the Republican Party has suffered from what appears to be severe short-sightedness. The party is factious and fractured as its leadership is obsessed with control issues. As such, congressional Republicans appear to be neglecting their constitutional duties by playing political parlor games while the nation is increasingly facing a constitutional crisis.
To stay viable in the short term, the congressional Republicans appear allied with the vacuous anti-ideology of Trumpism for the moment. In so doing, they demonstrate a lack of constitutional responsibility. For the sake of this republic and their own viability, they need to embrace their constitutional duties or risk irrelevancy and impotency down the road. I am not a Republican, but I see the need for a Republican party that is strong in its honest convictions, and sincerely loyal to the Constitution and the Republic it created.
I don't believe the vast majority of Republicans in Congress are truly devoted to President Trump. Those who are, are likely to be similar to him; self-absorbed and self-protecting. In other words, if the proverbial handwriting appears on the wall, I feel they will abandon him quickly. For the present, during the mid- term election period, they are remaining silent and acting supportive. I understand such reasoning even though I feel it risks perpetuating Trumpism.
If the Republicans lose the House, the handwriting will become clear and I suspect things will happen quickly. Some Republicans will take comfort in the fact, that they can feign loyalty if Trump is impeached and place the blame on the Democrats which could prove useful down the road if things turn sour thereafter, but Republicans are known for eating their own and Trump could be easily discredited as a Republican, which he truly is not. Mr. Trump could find himself chewed up and spit out quickly by members of the party he nominally leads; especially, members of the Republican old guard who will see opportunity to regain control of the party in his fall from favor.
At this point there is so much that is unknown, but time will tell.
Until next time, stay faithful.
